These are the seven key trends poised to reshape the video surveillance market through 2030.

Based on Memoori Research’s latest insights, the global video surveillance market is experiencing a shift, moving away from the explosive growth of the past decade toward a more sustainable expansion, projected to reach US$47.9 billion by 2030 from US$33.8 billion in 2024. This growth, however, is accompanied by fundamental changes as the industry evolves from reactive security measures to strategic, intelligence-driven infrastructure investments, where the real value lies in actionable data and tangible operational results.

Looking forward, the factors influencing the video surveillance market are increasingly centered around software advancements, geopolitical influences, and innovative business models rather than simply hardware improvements. Here are seven key trends that, according to Memoori’s recent analysis of the global video surveillance business from 2025 to 2030, will define the competitive landscape and determine success for manufacturers, integrators, and end-users.

1. Software and analytics will lead growth

While hardware sales have traditionally dominated industry value, the focus is now shifting toward software and analytics. The video management software (VMS) and analytics segment is predicted to grow at an impressive 8.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), significantly outpacing the overall market’s growth of just under 6%.

This shift indicates a change in customer priorities. Organizations are now seeking platforms that can transform video into searchable, actionable intelligence, rather than simply recording footage. As a result, software’s share of the total market value is expected to rise from approximately 17% in 2024 to nearly 20% by 2030. This trend is driving the adoption of recurring revenue models and pushing hardware-focused vendors to strengthen their software and ecosystem strategies to stay competitive.

2. AI goes mainstream in video surveillance

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transitioning from experimental projects to a standard feature in modern surveillance systems. A clear sign of this shift is the increasing adoption of AI-enabled cameras at the edge. Market analysis suggests that cameras with on-device deep learning capabilities will surge from just 23% of global shipments in 2024 to an impressive 64% by 2030.

This migration is driven by advancements in efficient edge AI silicon and the growing demand for faster, more reliable analytics. End-users are reporting significant returns on investment from these new cameras, with AI-based object detection reducing false positive alerts by over 95% in remote monitoring applications. As the price difference between AI and non-AI cameras narrows, embedded intelligence is becoming a standard expectation rather than a premium feature.

3. The Great Decoupling: Geopolitics reshapes the market

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have significantly impacted the video surveillance industry over the past five years. Regulations such as NDAA Section 889 and the FCC’s Covered List have effectively created separate markets: one dominated by Chinese manufacturers offering scale and competitive pricing, and another (primarily in North America and parts of Europe) where compliance, supply chain transparency, and cybersecurity are key differentiators.

These geopolitical pressures have had a considerable financial impact. Market leader Hikvision’s annual growth has slowed from over 28% in 2021 to just 3.5% in 2024, while NDAA-compliant vendors like Hanwha Vision have capitalized on the gap in the market, securing demand from government and critical infrastructure buyers, with its EBITDA margin projected to expand significantly.

This increasing market division is forcing global players to maintain multi-origin supply chains and separate product lines, adding complexity and cost to the market.

4. Market consolidation and the rise of platforms

Mergers and acquisitions in the video surveillance sector are largely driven by the desire to create unified platforms. Major players are focusing on integrating VMS, cloud services, and AI analytics into cohesive ecosystems rather than simply acquiring hardware companies.

Examples include Milestone Systems’ merger with Arcules and the sale of Bosch’s Building Technologies business. Companies like Motorola Solutions and Canon are expanding their portfolios through acquisitions to control more of the technology stack, from capture to analysis. While this promises more streamlined solutions for customers, it also carries the risk of vendor lock-in, making a vendor’s long-term strategy and commitment to openness increasingly important.

5. Hybrid cloud becomes the dominant architecture

While Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS) continues to grow, the industry is moving toward a hybrid cloud model. A recent survey revealed that 60% of organizations plan to adopt a hybrid-cloud architecture, combining on-premises recording with the flexibility of cloud management and storage.

This approach offers a critical balance. On-premises storage addresses bandwidth limitations, ensures operational resilience during network outages, and meets strict data residency requirements common in regulated sectors. The cloud provides scalable long-term archiving, simplified multi-site management, and powerful centralized analytics. This trend is particularly evident in Europe, where privacy concerns mean that over half of organizations expect to store no video in the cloud at all in 2025.

6. Privacy and compliance pose new challenges

Navigating the complex landscape of privacy regulations is a major challenge for the video surveillance industry. The EU’s GDPR and its AI Act are creating more stringent requirements for data protection, significantly impacting surveillance practices. The AI Act, for example, classifies remote biometric identification in public spaces as a prohibited practice, except for limited law enforcement purposes.

This regulatory pressure is driving vendors to adopt “privacy-by-design” principles. Features like default facial masking, strict role-based access with audit trails, and automated redaction tools are becoming essential for winning business in regulated markets. The substantial fine against Amazon in France for excessive employee monitoring highlights that compliance is now a fundamental requirement for market access.

7. Cybersecurity expectations are rising

As surveillance systems become more connected and data-rich, they are increasingly targeted by cyberattacks. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security emphasizes that IP-based video surveillance should be treated as critical infrastructure, requiring security-by-design at every level. However, many internet-facing surveillance devices remain publicly discoverable with weak or default credentials.

This gap between risk and reality is closing rapidly. End-users, particularly in enterprise and government sectors, are demanding higher cybersecurity standards, including secure boot processes, signed firmware, and transparent vulnerability management policies. Regulations like the EU’s NIS2 Directive mandate stricter breach notification rules and risk management measures, making cybersecurity assurance a key factor in procurement decisions.

Looking Ahead

These trends will redefine strategic priorities for all players in the video surveillance value chain as we move into 2026. Success will depend on technical capabilities and the ability to navigate regulatory complexity, geopolitical risks, and the evolving expectations of enterprise buyers. For a deeper understanding of the technologies, forecasts, and vendor dynamics shaping the market through 2030, consult the full research report.

*Owen Kell is Senior Research Associate at Memoori Research*